Bitcoin and many altcoins are back at key overhead resistance levels, but will bulls gather enough momentum to produce a sustained breakout?
The recovery in the cryptocurrency markets is being led by Bitcoin (BTC), which has risen above the $21,000 level. However, BlockTrends analyst Caue Oliveira said that on-chain data shows a decline in “whale activity” since the month of May, barring the flurry of activity during the Terra (LUNA) — since renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — collapse.
A survey conducted in China shows that most participants believe that Bitcoin could fall much further. About 40% of the participants said they would buy Bitcoin if the price dropped to $10,000. Only 8% of the voters showed interest in buying Bitcoin if it drops to $18,000.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Millionaire investor Kevin O’Leary told Cointelegraph that crypto markets are likely to witness “massive volatility” and enter into a state of “total panic” before entering an accelerated growth phase. He said that companies run by “idiot managers” will face the heat, but that will result in the rise of stronger companies.
Could higher levels continue to witness aggressive selling by the bears? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin slipped below the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 13, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests that the bulls purchased the dip and have pushed the price to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,842).
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will have to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate that the bears may be losing their grip. Above the 20-day EMA, the recovery could extend to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($23,753).
A break and close above this resistance could indicate that the BTC/USDT pair may have bottomed out.
This positive view could invalidate if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the support line. Such a move could increase the likelihood of a retest of the crucial support zone between $18,626 and $17,622
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) broke below the support line of the ascending triangle pattern on July 12 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. The price turned up from $1,006 and re-entered the triangle on July 13. This suggests that the break below the triangle may have been a bear trap.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers will try to propel the price above the overhead resistance at $1,280 and the 50-day SMA ($1,358). If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could start a rally to its pattern target of $1,679. The bears are expected to pose a strong challenge at the breakdown level of $1,700.
Another possibility is that the price turns down from $1,280. In that case, the pair could again drop to the support line of the triangle. The bears will have to sink the pair below $998 to gain the upper hand.
BNB/USDT
BNB rebounded off the strong support at $211 on July 13, indicating that bulls are buying the dips to this level. The relief rally broke above the 20-day EMA ($233) on July 14 and the bulls will attempt to push the price to the 50-day SMA ($250).
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls are on a comeback. A break and close above the 50-day SMA could increase the likelihood that the BNB/USDT pair has bottomed out at $183. That could start a northward march toward $300.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA and slips below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to $211. That may keep the pair range-bound between $211 and $250 for a few more days. A break and close below $211 could clear the path for a possible retest of the critical support at $183.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) rebounded off the strong support at $0.30, indicating that bulls are defending the level with vigor. On July 15, the recovery reached the downtrend line, which is acting as a formidable barrier.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price breaks and sustains below the 20-day EMA ($0.33), it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then make one more attempt to pull the price to the strong support at $0.30.
If this level gives way, the XRP/USDT pair could complete a descending triangle pattern. That could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the downtrend line, it will invalidate the descending triangle pattern. The failure of a bearish pattern is usually a bullish sign as it may lead to short covering by the aggressive bears. The pair could then rise to $0.45.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) bounced off the crucial support at $0.40 on July 13 indicating that bulls are attempting to defend the level. The relief rally has reached the 20-day EMA ($0.46), which could act as a stiff resistance.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a break below $0.40 increases. That could start the next leg of the downtrend, which could sink the ADA/USDT pair to $0.33.
On the contrary, if bulls push the price above the moving averages, it will suggest that the downtrend could be weakening. The pair could then rally to $0.54 where the bears may again pose a strong challenge.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) broke below the triangle on July 11 but the bears could not capitalize on this advantage and pull the price below the immediate support at $31. The price turned around from $32 on July 13 and has risen above the moving averages.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers will attempt to push and sustain the price above the resistance line of the triangle. If they succeed, it will suggest that the SOL/USDT pair may have formed a low at $25. The pair could then start an up-move toward $48.
The moving averages are on the verge of completing a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have a slight edge. To invalidate this positive view, the bears will have to pull the price below $31.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) dipped below the immediate support at $0.06 on July 12 but made a strong recovery and climbed back above the level on July 13. This suggests that bulls are buying on dips.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers will now attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance at the moving averages. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally toward $0.08 and then toward $0.09.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that bears remain in control. The sellers will then again attempt to sink the pair to the crucial support at $0.05. A break and close below this level could suggest the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
Related: Bitcoin is now in its longest-ever ‘extreme fear’ period
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) dropped below the strong support of $6.36 on July 12 but rebounded off $6 on July 13. This suggests that the bulls are attempting to trap the aggressive bears.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price has reached the 20-day EMA ($7.02), which could act as a strong resistance. If buyers drive the price above this level, the likelihood of a rally to the 50-day SMA ($7.94) increases. A break above this resistance could suggest that the DOT/USDT pair may have bottomed out.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will make one more attempt to sink the price below $6. If they manage to do that, the pair could start its downward move toward $5.
SHIB/USDT
Shiba Inu (SHIB) dipped below $0.000010 on July 12 but the lower levels attracted strong buying by the bulls. That propelled the price back above the psychological level of $0.000010 on July 13.
SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers have pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.000010) on July 15, which opens the gates for a possible rise to the overhead resistance at $0.000012. This level could again attract strong selling by the bears.
If the price turns down from $0.000012, the SHIB/USDT pair could again drop toward $0.000010 and remain stuck between these two levels for a few more days.
On the other hand, if bulls drive the price above $0.000012, the pair could rise to $0.000014. The gradually rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls have a slight edge.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) has formed an ascending triangle pattern that will complete on a break and close above the overhead resistance at $21.35.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($18.73) has flattened out and the RSI is at the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance will tilt in favor of the bulls if they push and sustain the price above $21.35. If that happens, the AVAX/USDT pair could rally to the pattern target of $29.
This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the support line. That could invalidate the bullish setup and open the doors for a possible drop to $13.71.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
