The outlook for the coming months is pain for risk assets, but central banks have a reality check of their own coming, say analysts.
Bitcoin (BTC) saw a predictable fall into the Wall Street open on April 11 as bears took the market toward $40,000.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin edges toward $40,000
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed last week’s downtrend gathering pace Monday after a disappointing weekly close.
The calm weekend thus gave way to volatility as the new week began, this being led by equities losing ground worldwide.
In Asia, the Hang Seng closed down 3% on the day in Hong Kong, while the Shanghai Composite Index finished 2.6% lower. Germany’s DAX traded 0.77% in the red at the time of writing, mimicking the FTSE 100 in London.
With Wall Street just starting out, attention focused on the strength of the United States dollar, as evidenced by a repeat surge of the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) over the 100 mark Monday.
“Looking a little overextended here, not that it’s noticeable in risk assets just yet,” Twitter commentator B C Richfield argued, showing a potential pullback target range.
“Expecting a pull back to 99.437 area which is the prior range high. Hold here then we could see more blood in the water for risk assets like crypto but close back in the range and…”
DXY chart with significant levels. Source: B C Richfield/Twitter
With Bitcoin firmly tipped to follow equities as they struggle through central bank policy tightening, the mood was subdued as BTC/USD fought for $41,000 support.
Rejection it is for #Bitcoin.
Let’s try to find support in the green zone. https://t.co/qNKK1Tu7eC
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 11, 2022
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout for March was tipped to lay bare the reality of inflationary pressures since the Russia–Ukraine war began in Europe late February.
The conflict and its impact on supply chains, notably food, had not yet figured in CPI data, which was nonetheless already at 40-year highs.
Markets in for “massive shock”
Crypto veterans, however, increasingly held a different view. Rather than raising rates and reversing asset purchases to deal with inflation, central banks would in fact have no choice but to continue their previous course despite soaring prices.
Related: BTC stocks correlation ‘not what we want’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
“There’s a massive shock in economic markets brewing (& really soon) that’s going to cause central banks around the world to aggressively reverse course in their ‘tightening’ talk,” podcast host Preston Pysh tweeted on the day.
“The 40 year trend line in bond yields is breaking down and YCC in the US is right around the corner.”
Pysh’s argument echoed that of former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who, in his latest blog post on the economy, revealed a complete lack of trust in the idea that the Federal Reserve, in particular, was really trying to reduce inflation.
“As I have said many times, the goal is not to actually fight inflation, but to appear to fight inflation so that domestic politicians can survive an angry populace that works more but can afford less,” he wrote.
“Central bankers must tighten, tighten, and tighten some more, but not too much — because positive real rates would completely destroy the debt-based global economy.”
Should that end up being a silver lining for crypto, then the devil was all in the timing. An initial comedown in stocks from tightening could nonetheless send Bitcoin considerably lower at first.
“The great thing about a 24/7 market accessible to all humans with an internet connection is that things happen quickly,” Hayes added.
“By the end of the second quarter in June of this year, I believe Bitcoin and Ether will have tested these levels: Bitcoin: $30,000, Ether: $2,500.”
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