BTC price breaking out of its established trading range is proving harder than expected.
Bitcoin (BTC) showed signs of recovery from an overnight rout on April 1 after the Ides of March caught up with bulls at the last minute.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin faces “pivotal” moment
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD passing $45,500 on April 1’s Wall Street open.
The pair had dipped to near $44,000 into the March monthly close, the pullback fuelled by a combination of macro factors and actions by large-volume wallets.
European stocks suffered on the day, thanks to Russia threatening to cut off gas supplies while a vote by European Union lawmakers to ban “unhosted” wallets further soured the mood.
While failing to spark a deeper retracement towards $40,000, the triggers left Bitcoin short of its all-important yearly open at $46,200 at the time of writing. This, in turn, left the door open for a return of the trading range in force since the beginning of 2022 with the yearly open as its ceiling.
“If we are supposed to go down, I think it’ll happen from here,” trader Crypto Ed summarized alongside a chart showing bullish and bearish continuations.
#BTC update from video
If we are supposed to go down, I think it’ll happen from here.Bullish alternative in blue pic.twitter.com/xfx4euh7RP
— Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) April 1, 2022
For popular Twitter account Material Indicators, short timeframes would be telling for the overall market trajectory.
Bitcoin had exited a rising wedge on the weekly chart, but had nonetheless failed to preserve the 50-week moving average (WMA) as support.
“Bitcoin is in a pivotal position,” it wrote on the day.
“BTC bulls lost the 50 WMA, but managed to reclaim the R/S flip above the structure. Volatility resides on either side of the range. Watching for the restests.”
BTC/USD chart. Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter
April known not to disappoint
Unlike March, April is a historically successful month for Bitcoin, leaving this year with much to live up to.
Related: Bitcoin ‘dormant’ for 7+ years moved right before BTC price dropped 5%
According to data from on-chain analytics resource Coinglass, BTC/USD has never lost more than 3.46% in April, with maximum gains at 50%.
Bitcoin monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass
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